Thesis Use Cases

Thesis Use Cases

Theses are most useful when they are part of a repeatable research workflow. This page shows how to use them as decision support rather than as isolated alerts.

Common workflows

1. Pre-trade review

Compare your own read with the agent’s structured thesis.

This is the fastest way to use theses: when you already have a token or wallet in mind, let the thesis tell you whether the evidence converges in the same direction.

2. Signal sourcing

Use conviction sorting to find setups the agent thinks are strongest.

Instead of hunting manually, start with the highest-conviction active theses and work downward.

3. Risk monitoring

Track invalidation or confirmation as new stories arrive.

Theses are especially useful if you already hold the asset or are considering a position.

4. Weekly review

Evaluate which thesis patterns confirmed, expired, or were invalidated.

This turns thesis history into a research dataset you can learn from over time.

How to interpret the feed

Theses are not trade instructions. They are structured hypotheses with explicit exit criteria, so the most important habit is to read the risk factors and verify the contributing stories.

The central question is: is the agent actually seeing the same structure that I think I’m seeing?

Practical example

If a token has multiple supporting stories and a high-conviction thesis, the next step is not immediate action — it is evidence review.

Ask:

  • Do the supporting stories actually converge?
  • Is the entry signal specific enough to monitor?
  • What would invalidate the thesis?
  • Is the entity a tradeable token or just an address?
  • Is the thesis about a short-lived move or a broader structural shift?

How to use LONG theses

LONG theses are best used as structured confirmation:

  • use them to verify your own bullish read
  • use them to source watchlist candidates
  • use them to time entries when conviction is still building
  • use them to avoid entering too late when the thesis is already fading

If the thesis is LONG but the risk factors are heavy, it is often a “watch, don’t chase” situation.

How to use SHORT or AVOID theses

AVOID theses are not just “stay away” signals. They are often the cleanest short ideas in the system when the entity is a tradeable token and the structural danger is still active.

Use them to:

  • identify rugs or manipulation
  • avoid thin-liquidity traps
  • build short watchlists
  • monitor whether a danger signal has cleared

For non-tradeable wallet entities, the thesis still matters because it can expose stress, control, or execution risk.

Risk monitoring workflow

Once a thesis is in your watchlist:

  1. Read the entry and invalidation signals.
  2. Check the contributing stories.
  3. Watch conviction history for deterioration or confirmation.
  4. Re-open the thesis when a new story arrives.
  5. Decide whether the thesis is still valid before acting.

The thesis is most valuable when it tells you what changed and what you should watch next.

Signal sourcing workflow

If you are using theses to source ideas:

  1. Sort by conviction.
  2. Filter to active and confirmed statuses.
  3. Look for multi-story convergence instead of single-story noise.
  4. Prefer thesis sets with diverse supporting story types.
  5. Track how often those thesis patterns historically confirm.

This is useful for both discretionary and systematic processes because it turns a long story feed into a ranked list of hypotheses.

Weekly review workflow

A weekly thesis review should answer:

  • Which theses confirmed?
  • Which expired?
  • Which were invalidated?
  • Which directions worked best in this market regime?
  • Which story combinations appear most predictive?

This kind of review helps you calibrate the thesis feed to your own strategy rather than trusting every score blindly.

Candidate pipeline workflow

The candidate pipeline gives you a head start before a thesis is written.

Use it to:

  • see which entities are converging before the LLM promotion step
  • inspect the matched rules
  • pre-classify likely direction and risk
  • decide whether to keep watching the entity until the thesis is published

If a candidate persists across multiple time buckets, that is a notable signal of sustained convergence.

How theses connect to stories and graphs

The best thesis workflow is:

  1. Thesis identifies the hypothesis.
  2. Stories explain the evidence behind it.
  3. /links shows the raw transaction structure.
  4. Your notes record the decision and context.

That chain is the practical difference between a headline and an investable research object.

Portfolio-level uses

Theses are especially helpful when you are managing a broader book:

  • use them to monitor positions you already hold
  • use them to discover new ideas outside your current watchlist
  • use them to spot invalidation before the market fully reprices it
  • use them to backtest which thesis patterns matter to your strategy

Why it matters

Theses help you turn a long stream of stories into a manageable set of decision-support objects.

They let you act like you have a research analyst continuously reading the feed and writing the memo, while still keeping the underlying evidence visible.

Go deeper

Thesis GuideStories