Core ConceptsTheses

Theses

Theses are the agent’s analyst memo: structured conclusions drawn from multiple converging stories.

What a thesis is

A thesis is a directional brief — typically LONG, SHORT, or AVOID — supported by several related stories and scored with a conviction value.

Thesis anatomy

A thesis usually includes:

  • direction
  • conviction score
  • supporting story IDs
  • token address or entity address
  • entry signal
  • invalidation signal
  • risk factors
  • status

How theses differ from stories

  • Stories are individual events
  • Theses are sustained conclusions

A token can have many stories without a thesis. A thesis appears when the evidence converges strongly enough to justify a structured view.

Why it matters

If stories are sensor blips, theses are the memo that tells you what the agent believes the blips mean.

Example shape

{
  "entity_address": "0x...",
  "direction": "LONG",
  "conviction": 0.87,
  "time_horizon": "24h",
  "status": "active"
}

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